Really Good/Sometimes Excellent

Everyone knows by now how much of a passing league the National Football League has turned into. League rules hamstringing defensive backs have made the offensive philosophy of throwing the ball as many times as possible into the intelligent way to play offense in the current pro football landscape.

And we are finding out that there are various tiers of quarterback play that have emerged from watching another NFL season that make one wonder just who has the leadership at the position that can advance their teams to the promised land. The tiers can range from the elite practitioners of the position, to the really good/often excellent, to the pretty good or “better than average”, to the average, to the below average, to the near incompetent, and, let’s face it, some quarterbacks are just downright dreadful.

That’s seven tiers. We are talking about quarterback play here, not just the quarterback himself. QB play can be enhanced by several factors, including coaching, a team’s offensive philosophy, a line giving him time to throw, their running game to help keep defenses honest, and the quality of the receiving corps.

We know there are quarterbacks who have proven to the world beyond a shadow of a doubt that THEY are elite quarterbacks no matter who is on the receiving end of their passes. (Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, to name a few) These quarterbacks can make just about any wide receiver look good, and it is really proven when certain wide receivers are all pro when they are with these elite QB’s and they become ordinary, near journeymen level players when they go somewhere else that doesn’t have an elite QB.

Quarterbacks like these are hard to find. Trust me. Everybody is looking for the next Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. And some quarterbacks are starting to cross over from the next level of the position, the really good/sometimes excellent players like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, who have shown they are knocking on the door of the elite club. As some of the elite guys get older, it’s possible these spots among the elite are starting to change hands, as the two I’ve just mentioned have shown that they have the ability to single-handedly win games by their own unique skills.

As one pores over all of the quarterbacks in the league, one starts to see something emerging. And that is, the quarterbacks that fall into the various levels of quarterback play below the elite have sometimes been able to move up a tier or two when they start getting to throw to an elite or very good wide receiver or two. In other words, one could be at the fourth tier of quarterback play, or merely average, and jump up to pretty good or even really good, just by the team getting excellent wide receivers to both open up the offense and to get really efficient players to throw to.

Examples.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has pretty much been an average, journeyman quarterback throughout his entire career. The Jets picked up elite wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker over the last two years and now the Jets have one of the more effective offenses in football and Fitzpatrick is playing at the really good/sometimes excellent level of quarterback.

Alex Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs threw exactly zero touchdowns last season to a wide receiver. He was an average NFL quarterback. Maybe just above average. They picked up Jeremy Maclin in free agency. Suddenly, they can pass again. They can score points. They always could run some and play defense. Now they have won ten straight and enter the playoffs as the hottest team in football. And Smith is now playing QB at the really good/sometimes excellent level.

Houston’s Brian Hoyer was always in the “below average” level of NFL quarterbacks. Houston always had the defense and could run the ball. Now they have a passing game that features Deandre Hopkins. They are effectively getting quarterback play at the “better than average” level now. THEY are in the playoffs.

The Washington Red Skins went with career backup Kirk Cousins as their quarterback this year. They had wide receiver weapons DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in place. They discovered they had a really good tight end in Jordan Reed. They had people to throw to. Cousins as a starter played this season at a really good/sometimes excellent level. Washington went from dogs in the NFC East to a playoff team. BECAUSE of the quality of their quarterback play.

When Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy and playing, (and it was that way when Victor Cruz was healthy and playing, and in fact, imagine if BOTH were healthy) Eli Manning moves up a tier or two to near elite status. When Beckham and or Cruz or another really good wide receiver are not there, Manning’s quality of play drops down to average or to just above average.

When Dallas has Tony Romo and Dez Bryant doing what they can do in the passing game, the team can go 12 and 4. When both get injured and they DON’T get quality quarterback play, they can go 4 and 12. It’s ALL about getting good QB play.

(You can WIN a Super Bowl with great defense, a solid running game and BETTER than average play at quarterback, IF the cards fall the right way and IF the matchup is right. Ask Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer of the Ravens, Brad Johnson of Tampa Bay and Phil Simms of the New York Giants. All won Super Bowls. None were ever “elite.” All, however played quarterback during their playoff runs at a level that was at least effectively a Tier 2 or 3 quality.)

On the horizon, we see several teams recently using high draft picks hoping to get Tier 1, 2, or 3 levels of QB play from their so called “franchise quarterbacks.” Andrew Luck is at least a Tier 2. The jury is still out whether Jameis Winston of Tampa Bay, Blake Bortles of Jacksonville, Marcus Mariotta of Tennessee, Derek Carr of Oakland, Teddy Bridgewater of Minnesota or Johnny Manziel will ever provide consistent, effective quarterback play at the high levels needed to take their teams to championship games in the future. Manziel is looking like he will probably one day become a greeter at a night club in Vegas. The others, we will follow closely and see how they develop.

And finally, to make the point of all this, we come to the curious mind of Chip Kelly. He thought the best way to run his offense at Philadelphia was to get rid of two “really good” wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin and one really good running and pass catching back in LeSean McCoy. Even with a “below average” type of quarterback in Nick Foles, with them, they were still a winning team and a potent offense. They got rid of their pass catchers and went with what they thought would be an upgrade at quarterback in Sam Bradford.

The end result was that Philly did NOT get good quarterback play without the good receivers. For that matter, they didn’t have a good running game either. Philly ended up sucking most of the season on offense. They were a NON playoff team that was so disappointing, Chip Kelly got fired as coach.

Meanwhile, Kansas City, with an upgrade at wide receiver in Maclin, MADE the playoffs. Washington, with Jackson providing a deep threat, and Cousins with an arm that could reach him, MADE the playoffs. Neither of those coaches got fired.  (And Nick Foles, traded to a team WITHOUT a good offensive scheme or good wide receivers in St. Louis, has descended into the seventh level tier of hell and turned into a simply dreadful quarterback)

You CANNOT succeed in the NFL today without quarterback play that at least rises to the level of better than average, and probably must rise to the level of really good and at times excellent. To do that, you of course need a quarterback that fits that resume. And, unless you’ve got Tom Brady as your quarterback and the New England offensive scheme, you need GOOD wide receivers and a tight end to give your quarterback players that can get open, catch the ball and MAKE PLAYS. You HAVE to have quarterbacks that can read defenses, make decisions and make throws and you HAVE to have the offensive scheme and the talented wide receivers that can get open and catch the ball.

The bottom line is that in today’s National Football League, you’ve got to have both a really good quarterback and a really good wide receiver or two to win anymore in the modern passing game era. Without some form of this combination, football teams are just deluding themselves if they think they are going to win.